The OS + the carrier's customization = mess.
Which carriers will offer up a phone you can customize with your own OS build or application software downloads? The real power of android is separating the software from the hardware. Let the phone maker offer a brilliant, user friendly piece of hardware with GPS, touch screen, accelerometers, etc. and then let Google provide the ultimate OS. As soon as the carriers get into the mix they will want to mess with the Android Software stack providing a load of needless carrier tie-in services. This is where Apple gets it right. They made a deal with AT&T but didn't allow any carrier customization. This lets the user end up with a clean user experience on the phone.
Will Google attempt to provide the same kind of lobby with the carriers and the mobile phone makers. In my mind to deliver a clean user experience Google will somehow need to control certain aspects of the user experience on the device.
Next the carriers will destroy the application update experience. Traditionally, the carriers have not wanted to loose control of the device software stack. Will they really allow end users to download and install applications from a Google Application store? Will they want to provide their own stores, with applications they have vetted? Will the carriers feel like they are on the hook to provide tech support when the end user downloads an application and breaks the device? Complex questions. In my mind this is why Apple is maintaining tight control over the application store.
The tight end user experience we saw in the Google I/O demos may never reach us as consumers. With the iPhone we can be assured that Apple controls the user experience. With Android Google is encouraging the Carriers to customize. A model which is broken in my mind.
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